As JP Morgan was fond of saying “i never buy at lows. i never sell at the hights, i play the middle 60%” (more…)

Sheila Bair has moved with impressive alacrity to shutter failed small and medium-sized banks. But she is still held hostage by the too-big-to-fail four. (more…)

Stock

* The market will pare some of the gains of the bear market rally. This will seem like a good opportunity for those folks who missed the earlier rally in the S&P in Mar, Apr, May to get in on the “bull” market ride. Alas as people buy into the dip the market will keep going up as if they were right. More people will add money into this rally and then the reality of the impact of 600,000+ people losing jobs every month will hit the corporate earnings numbers, house foreclosures will increase as Option ARM and other fancy mortgage products hit the market. The markets will then tank, testing the Mar 2009 lows. Keeping an open mind as to if those lows will hold, though chances are higher that it will be broken to the downside. Don’t hold onto stock positions yet. There will come a time when stocks will be a 10 bagger, just let your money sit in cash instruments as deflation ravages through.

Bonds
Once stocks start falling again, treasuries prices will rise again. But in purchasing power terms dollar value will start gradually fall with the threat of an S&P downgrade like the UK downgrade.

Precious Metals
Gold will fall below 700$ which will be a good opportunity to buy as people smoke the green shoots thinking it to be of another kind! So when it goes below 700 jump in, and when folks sober up you could have a good upside.